I still wish Chicago had outbid the Rays for Nelson Cruzs services. Currently viewing seasons between 2022 and 2022 We need your support to make FanGraphs sustainable so you can continue to enjoy all of the stats and tools you've come to rely on, like The. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Lynn will be back soon enough, but his injury exposes how thin Chicagos rotation is, especially if another injury strikes. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. Now, I did say there was one major exception, and thats in-season roster changes. For these Opening Day power rankings, Ive used each teams projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The exercise continues this offseason. There just isnt much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. That Bobby Witt Jr. projects well is not a surprise, but Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, and Vinnie Pasquantino all crushed the feckless assortment of minor league pitchers they faced, and you have to feel much better about the long-term outlook of all three in the majors. For just this run of rankings, Ive used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Sandy Alcantara, Pablo Lpez, and Trevor Rogers are as good a 1-2-3 as youll find in the majors, and Jess Luzardo has suddenly rediscovered his fastball velocity this spring. New for this year, Ive opted to include defense as a component, though its weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. The Dodgers argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. With a strong rotation led by Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, it finally seems like Philadelphia has assembled the talent to break their 10-year playoff drought. Dont worry, they still have between $0M and $10M in payroll space and 1 top-100 prospect, plus a couple others in the 100-200 range that could be traded to help the roster. Fangraphs: 2022 Top 100 Prospects. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, These rankings, though, are entirely data driven. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors I dont believe thats a safe assumption at all. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. With Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster and Riley Greene close behind him (once he heals from his spring foot injury), Detroit has loudly declared its intention to compete sooner rather than later. They did bring back DeScalfani and Alex Wood and Logan Webb is a stud. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY. There are a lot of Reds who ZiPS sees as having significant upside (Elly De La Cruz, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Noelvi Marte), but the system doesnt see 2023 being their breakout campaigns. But for whatever reason, PECOTA has finally started to like the Braves. First, we take the three most important components of a team their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. The Blue Jays strengths are undeniable: a potent lineup that scored the third-most runs in baseball last year, and the best projected starting rotation based on our 50/50 blend of FIP and RA9. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 9:47 AM ET, Park Factors Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Too many wins for the Dodgers and too few for the Giants. 60% bachata, 20% kizomba, and 20% salsa. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. Below are the projections for the Texas Rangers. Or at least make the last two not an absolute dumpster fire. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. ITS ANGELS TIME! The projections havent figured out how to handle the Rays brand of excessively deep roster construction. Support the show by subscribing to our Patreon!! ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. I would be surprised if the best middle infield came from a team other than these three. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Not that theyre likely to hit 9 figures but they will spend modestly. The Cards (catcher, a starting pitcher) and Brewers (two outfielders) have similar levels of neediness, and this preliminary projection basically preserves their relative 2022 standing. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. #1 Adley Rutschman. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. OK, not really. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Probably the most surprising team in these standings is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a cornucopia of players that ZiPS just really likes (Corbin Carroll, Brandon Pfaadt, Drey Jameson, and Ryne Nelson in particular). and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. by Retrosheet. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. ZiPS isnt projecting Matt Chapman to set any new personal bests, as his offense has fallen off enough that hes probably left his 201819 MVP-ish peak for good. Even being average for 2 months wouldve kept us in it. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. Adley Rutschman should make his debut as soon as he returns from his spring arm injury, and its possible Grayson Rodriguez could follow soon after. A man is dead after an overnight shooting in Stockton, marking the city's second homicide of the year. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons. ATC Projections Expected 2022 Win Totals. As you might logically suspect, ZiPS systematically underestimates teams that add value during the season and overrates teams that subtract value. Signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien is a great place to begin, though. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. We had four good months last year. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, youre reassembling the late-80s Braves. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a "state of the union" estimate for each. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, This 85-win projection is based on more solid ground. Even if father time catches up to only one of them (and tbh has it not already for Longoria) then 81 wins is pretty reasonable unless Joey Bart just comes out blazing. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Still, if they make the playoffs in 2022 as close a certainty youll get in baseball these days theyll join the 19912005 Atlanta Braves and the 19952007 New York Yankees as the only teams in history to make the playoffs for an entire decade. I dont think that theyll ever solve the hangover effect in the sense of substantially reducing the gap. But despite being absolutely premature and littered with horrible misses, projected standings at this point are actually quite useful, and useful is the best description any kind of predictive model can strive for. Theres enough talent on the roster to be a nuisance to the other contenders in the NL East but not enough for the Nationals to be contenders themselves. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. They also need to figure out how to solve the Coors Field hangover effect; over the last five seasons the Rockies have won 55.4% of their games at home and just 43.2% of their games on the road. Podcasts: FanGraphs Audio . Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). While its still taken as an assumption that hell return, the fact is he didnt sign before the 2021 season, he didnt sign during the 2021 season, and he didnt sign before the lockout. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. At 12:53 a.m. Sunday, officers went to the 900 block of Greensboro Court on a report of a . Completely bonkers if the payroll stays there, but since it ranged from $136M-$157M from 2017-2019 Id say its a safe bet to increase. by Handedness. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. Approximately minutes of joyous analysis. My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. The premium ad-free membership. Reservations are proceeded at phone no. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. by Retrosheet. As you can see, FanGraphs is pretty high on the 2022 team. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. As everything sits today, PECOTA gives the Braves a 7% to win the World Series, a very strong number, and a 45% chance to win the division, almost identical to the Mets. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. In truth, the projections for Arizona were so positive on the whole that I actually went back and double-checked every park factor and calculation specific to the Diamondbacks and their minor league affiliates. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Well start with the AL East: You shouldnt be surprised to see the Yankees crash back to earth here, based on the simple fact that the dude worth 11.4 WAR for them this past season hint, its not Tim Locastro is currently unsigned. by Retrosheet. Still they lost their starting catcher (Posey), second baseman (Solano), left fielder (Bryant), and best pitcher (Gausman). Vladito versus Olson for supremacy in the AL should be a fun battle the next few years, though the former is likely to vanquish the latter for good in a few years given their respective ages. Below is the full schedule, as you can watch all 380 . All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. The outfield depth just isnt that strong, especially with neither Cristian Pache nor Drew Waters having any kind of breakout years in Triple-A. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. A community dedicated to discussing the San Diego Padres. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. Location: Karta. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. 2022 Year to Date: 2022 Projected Rest of Season: ZiPS Projected Standings American League East, ZiPS Projected Standings American League Central, ZiPS Projected Standings American League West. They will play a number of baseball games in 2023 and win at least a handful of them. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). The Rangers have stopped digging the hole, but 2022 is probably too soon for them to climb out. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Outbidding Minnesota for Correa (or signing Trevor Story) would have been a more elegant and probably superior solution to the the Josh Donaldson trade, without adding significant money to the payroll. On paper, the White Sox are good enough to be in the second tier, but some spring injury issues have knocked them down a peg. Theyll get him and James Paxton back from injury sometime this summer, but until then, theyll have to hope that Michael Wacha and Rich Hill can hold up the back end of the rotation. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. I start by making a generalized depth chart, using our Depth Charts as an initial starting point. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. Hes about half of their payroll now. These standings reflect everything through yesterdays Hunter Renfroe trade. Many of Chicagos projections are notably south of where they were in 2022, and there are still at least two fairly serious holes in the starting lineup that the team better be more serious about filling this year. 2022 Playoff Odds, . Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Even if the Nationals struggle to stay out of the NL East basement, theyll at least be entertaining to watch. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. Duke Blue Devils 13-5 (24) I cant say Im displeased to see Luis Uras at the top of the batter list Ive long been fascinated by him and even featured him on my breakout list last year but Id definitely be uneasy about having him as my teams best player. After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Lets start with how teams performed versus their projections: Teams have gotten a bit more polarized in how theyre run in-season. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? Reports are coming in the Cleveland has extended JRam. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022.. The projections actually see the Pirates having a halfway decent offense and Endy Rodriguez has a terrific projection but the rotation still projects rather poorly, as ZiPS remains frightened of Mitch Kellers plate discipline data. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. But this is also the Mets were talking about; anything that could go wrong probably will. I dont know exactly what that profile looks like, but Im sure the Rockies analytics department is up to the task (pause for laughter). 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